Over 40% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil output shut-in by Francine but little damage seen

Crude oil prices rose for the second straight session on Thursday, as Hurricane Francine forced many offshore wells to shut in production, but gains were capped by ongoing concerns over the outlook for crude demand.

More than 730K bbl/day, or 42% of crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, was shut-in on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported.

Some analysts said Francine’s impact could prove short-lived, as it lost intensity quickly after making landfall in Louisiana Wednesday night, which could turn the oil market’s attention back to a lack of global demand, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said, according to Reuters.

Refined products supply in Louisiana appears stable and largely unaffected by the hurricane, as some terminals that shut loadings because of the storm were back online or restoring operations, Argus reported Thursday.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) said its 523K bbl/day Baton Rouge refinery is operating as normal and supplying customers, and Shell (SHEL) said it saw no serious damage at its Geismar chemicals plant and 234K bbl/day Norco refinery in Louisiana, according to Argus.

Chevron (CVX) said its 357K bbl/day Pascagoula, Mississippi, refinery is operational and supplying customers, and Citgo said its 455K bbl/day Lake Charles, Louisiana, refinery was not damaged and is returning to normal operations, Argus also said.

While details are not yet known about Louisiana plants run by Marathon Petroleum (MPC), PBF Energy (PBF), Valero (VLO) and Delek (DK), Argus reported market participants expect a return to normal operations in the coming days.

Front-month Nymex crude for October (CL1:COM) closed +2.4% to $68.97/bbl, and front-month November Brent crude (CO1:COM) ended +1.9% to $71.97/bbl, the best settlement for both benchmarks in a week.

U.S. natural gas futures rose to a two-month high, with the front-month Nymex October contract closing +3.8% to $2.357/MMBtu, boosted by a below-estimate storage build and expectations of limited impact on demand from the hurricane.

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Also on Thursday, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2024 demand growth forecast by more than 7% to 900K bbl/day, citing weak demand in China and lackluster growth in other areas.

The IEA estimated China’s oil demand would grow by just 180K bbl/day this year, far below an earlier growth outlook of 410K bbl/day, as China’s oil consumption had decline Y/Y for a fourth straight month in July, compared to a 1.5M bbl/day annual growth rate in 2023.

The U.S. also is showing signs of weakening demand, as crude stockpiles rose last week as crude imports grew and fuel demand fell, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday.